Why Jake Shields Can Win...

So I, along with many people out there, have been watching the St.Pierre/Shields Primetime shows. In addition to that, I've been watching Jake Shields for a while now. Everything that Shields has been saying about his career is true: he has defeated equal level competition as GSP, he has been a champion of numerous other organization, he is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the world of mixed martial arts.  Some other statements which are equally true: GSP is probably the best welterweight who's ever competed, and one of the top 2 or 3 fighters in any weight class.  So after that laud, why is it that I feel Jake Shields can actually win this fight? Simple...Jake Shields is better than all of GSP's other opponents.  He's better than Serra, better than Koshcheck, better than Fitch, and certainly better than an aging Matt Hughes.  GSP has acknowledged such, even beyond his typical (and frankly trite at this point) declaration of this opponent (whichever one he's facing at the moment) being the toughest he has ever faced. You could argue that Fitch or Koshcheck is a better wrestler, for example, than Shields, and you'd probably win that argument. What I would argue, however, is that Shields is a better Jiu-Jitsu artist than Serra, a better Jiu-Jitsu artists than Koshcheck or Fitch is a wrestler, and for that reason he can win.

Cesar Gracie said on yesterday's Prime-time show that GSP is a phenomenal athlete, but he's not the toughest guy out there.  I agree, and I think that the only reason GSP has reigned as long as he has is because he's good enough to neutralize all of his opponents strengths, while simultaneously being a very good (not great) offensive fighter.  His defense is a mystery, and one that may be tested on April 30th. There are down sides to not losing a round, or spending less than 5 minutes on your back in 5 fights, the problem is that you have not been challenged defensively.  GSP's defense has been, quite traditionally, a good offense, and offense so good as to never require that he exist for more than a few seconds in a bad, let along dangerous, position.  The last time we saw GSP in danger was the Serra defense. Now, although just about every opponent since Serra (excluding Shields, thank god) has sited that fight as a way GSP can loose, there is something to that loss.  GSP holds a dichotomous distinction as simultaneously being one of the best fighters to ever breathe, and one of the few I've seen tap out to strikes.  GSP wasn't knocked out, he wasn't submitted, he tapped while an mounted opponent with a stronger punch than him reigned down blow after blow.  And while GSP has certainly learned his lesson about the dangers of underestimating his opponents, his ability to deal with pressure under fire has yet to be seen. His answer has been to avoid that situation by being too damn good, and that in and of itself is a feat worthy of endless praise. However, Shields has the ability to take him where Serra took him, to take him where Hughes took him when he hastily tapped to an armbar with seconds left to a round. Shields can win because he can challenge GSP, which no one has yet to do.